The Superforecaster consensus is: Joe Biden - 87%; Donald Trump 13%. Michael Platt: Right. Sep 3rd 2020 IN THE FACE of electoral upsets and viral black swans, Anne McElvoy asks the cofounder of the Good Judgement "superforecaster" project whether today's future-gazers should still . US Presidential Elections 2020. polls . 65% sure. Calton Hill: 2020 But Bill Flack isn't a superforecaster because he knows the president of Burkina Faso, or the rules that govern Chilean elections, or the history of Japanese monetary policy. In his brilliant new book, Tetlock offers a much more hopeful message, based once again on his own ground-breaking research. Thinking like a Superforecaster isn't only helpful when playing The Prediction Game, though. Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia). As we draw ever closer to the US election on 3 November, it can be . To become a superforecaster, volunteers had to make consistently accurate predictions across dozens of questions over a period of at least nine months. 20 January - Inauguration Day. As of mid-October, 8 of the top 10 most expensive Senate races have taken place in the 2020 cycle. Behind in July. In fact, we are going beyond the mindset. Election 2020. Why aren't Republicans trying to juice the economy? [email protected]: You're doing a lot of research right now into the mindset of people and what goes into the decision-making process. Posted on 12th October 2020 12th October 2020 by Gary Searchlight Dominic Cummings to spend day editing 1992 blog predicting win for Biden in 2020 US election HINDSIGHT IS 2020 : BRITAIN'S RULER AND FAMOUS SUPERFORECASTER, DOMINIC CUMMINGS, has announced he is to spend the day predicting the future, from the past. Are you a Superforecaster®? "All we can do is brace for impact": Canada plans for US ... Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020 - EA Forum Tim Kilpatrick, MedCity News (6 August 2020) The Superforecaster: Warren Hatch. Are You A Superforecaster? The Big Lessons Of The Last ... President Trump is losing his bid for re-election. As we draw ever closer to the US election on 3 November, it can be . Opinion | Predicting the Future Is Possible. These ... 3) We will be able to edit/change the color of our hair by genetic engineering in 2040. By the end of the month, Trump's odds were slashed, and Biden hovered ahead with a lead between 22 and 23 points, on average. . Warren Hatch was recently named CEO of Good Judgment Inc, the commercial arm of the superforecaster franchise. Accuracy was the gold standard for talent spotting, but watching the results play out took time. Their voting decisions may be based on the candidate's previous performance as an MP. "Superforecasting": can you profit from predicting the ... 15 October - 2nd Presidential debate. President Trump is losing his bid for re-election. In the time since, we've released: 18 Volumes of Metaculus Mondays, covering some 30 questions; 13 episodes of our live joint-podcast with AR Global Security, This . July 22, 2020. Superforecasters Predict Vaccine Next Year, Key To The ... Election 2020. Good Judgment® Open | Will any 2020 California election ... The Wall Street Journal reports that, in 2016, 33 million ballots were cast by mail in the 2016 general election, accounting for 24 percent of the 140 million votes. Are you a Superforecaster?; The Big Lessons of the Last ... Copy link. 03 November - United States presidential election. In a Nutshell: In 2011, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) held a four-year research competition looking for ways to improve its forecasting of geopolitical events in the wake of 9/11 and the Iraq War. Trump might even suffer such a devastating defeat to former Vice President Joe Biden that Democrats retake the Senate and extend their House majority. If Trump dies or is removed from office by any means prior to the election, question resolves negative, and will retroactively close one week prior to the takeover of the . apr. 70% sure. 15 October - 2nd Presidential debate. 03 November - United States presidential election. 07 October - Vice presidential debate. Age: First published in 2015. . In this episode (recorded 7/12/17), we interview superforecaster and pharmacist Elaine Rich. Replication Markets: replicationmarkets.com. Improve your forecasting skills and find out how you stack up. Featured. this award again goes to the man himself for failing to win an election that had been rigged in his favour. This document contains a series of highlights about forecasting in 2020 which I have gathered after 10 months of writing a forecasting newsletter. . Also, look at Politics in pictures: a visual guide to Italy , and read Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections and Italy's government has collapsed. Superforecaster of the year. Emil O. W. Kirkegaard 7. 3. Visual Web Stories. We also offer a glimpse into some of the questions on our public . ). It is fact-checked by Michelle Harris and original music by Isaac Jones . Loser in November. I'll write one or two paragraphs for each point, and then list ideas which interested readers can follow up on. Share page. Why is this relevant to EAs? US election 2020. ~ nonprophetspod. In their annual publication previewing the year ahead, "The World Ahead 2022," The Economist featured a full page of Good Judgment's Superforecasts. As of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden's bid for the presidency. As mentioned in the Goals for 2020 post, I decided to get into forecasting because I found a funnier website than GJOpen . Election Betting Odds aggregates PredictIt with other such services for the US presidential elections. We then talk about the upcoming elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany. A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack ("CCTA") in the United States before 1 September 2021? Forecasters may now choose to . 65% sure. This is marked as (c.o.i) throughout the text. 30 Under 30 2021. . 18 February 2020. Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. 2. 1) One of my all-time favorite investing books is Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. 20 January - Inauguration Day. FutureFirst subscribers have unlimited access to all those forecasts, with updated probability values and commentary. The Ezra Klein Show is a production of New York Times Opinion. . Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like today's episode, guest hosted by Julia Galef and featuring . Opinion polls, forecasting models, betting markets, and superforecaster predictions are all telling the same story. "Sir Geoffrey Cox hits back at government briefings against him to say his BVI job and proxy voting was specifically signed off by th. Answer (1 of 7): Dominic Raab is right. . 03 November - United States presidential election. In this episode (recorded 3/7/17), we interview superforecaster and "citizen of nowhere" Sander Wagner. Dec. 3, 2021, 4:01 p.m. FutureFirst subscribers have unlimited access to all those forecasts, with updated probability values and commentary. Hatch was himself a Superforecaster before crossing the road to lead the firm, and holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford. Elaine started with Good Judgment in the first year of IARPA-ACE forecasting tournament after reading about the project on FiveThirtyEight.She was interviewed by NPR in 2014 about her experience with Good Judgment in a segment called "So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Agent". 07 October - Vice presidential debate. KM: On 2020 election questions, my score was near the Superforecaster median partly because I withdrew from forecasting most US election questions for much of the year and took the median for those days as a result. Visual Web Stories. 22 October - 3rd Presidential debate. Visual Web Stories. Boris Johnson urged to say if he agreed with views of 'superforecaster' Andrew Sabisky Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 12:39 Updated: Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 19:52 Peter Walker and Kate Proctor It is conventional political wisdom that nothing changes in an election's trajectory from July until November. Now a professional Superforecaster with Good Judgment Inc, Jean-Pierre is featured in a new book by psychologist and Wharton School professor Adam Grant, Think Again. After a brief contraction of these odds in early July, Biden bettors . 22 October - 3rd Presidential debate. 4) In 2035, most if not . Featured public Superforecasts. Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California (Washington Post, CBS SF BayArea, California AB 2125, National Conference of State Legislatures). Even though it's not technically about investing, the book's findings on why some people are able to better predict the future than others relate directly to investment success. Previously, he was a partner at . This is up from last week's 2% figure, but still significantly lower than the 20-30% range, which the figure moved in through the second half of last year. . I learned something recently: A whole lot of people vote by mail. 18 February 2020. Share page. So we hunted for other early clues about who might be especially good at prediction. And it's not even close. The Superforecasters predict that there is a 77% chance Italy will not hold a snap general election before the end of next year. It is worth remembering, that the Five-Thirty-Eight had Trump at 30% on the day of the US Election four years ago. Nov 7 • Global Guessing Podcasts…. Featured. If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. Jean-Pierre Beugoms joined the Good Judgment Project back in 2011, in its first year, and became one of the first ever group of superforecasters. Current featured Superforecasts on our public dashboard: In their annual publication previewing the year ahead, "The World Ahead 2022," The Economist featured a full page of Good Judgment's Superforecasts. 20 January - Inauguration Day. close. Forecasting challenge sponsors — including, among others, #1 Bestselling Author Adam Grant, The Economist, and the University of Pennsylvania's Mack Institute — invite you to anticipate the major political, economic, and technological events that will shape 2021. Previously, he was a partner at . Scientific American is the essential guide to the most awe-inspiring advances in science and technology, explaining how they change our understanding of the world and shape our lives. To learn more, view our previous Superforecaster Fridays: Will Italy hold a snap general election by the end of 2020? Share. . Sander is an assistant professor of quantitative sociology in at Ensae ParisTech. Share page. Heroes, villains and top TV: John Crace dishes out his awards for 2020. But Bill Flack isn't a superforecaster because he knows the president of Burkina Faso, or the rules that govern Chilean elections, or the history of Japanese monetary policy. A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts: Metaculus forecasters do better. This is roughly the view put forward by John Kay and Mervyn King in Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an Unknowable Future (2020). Will Italy hold a snap general election by the end of 2020? For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? The dye is cast. To become a superforecaster, volunteers had to make consistently accurate predictions across dozens of questions over a period of at least nine months. Jordan Heath-Rawlings. There shouldn't be an Election Day in 2020. Voters elect candidates at election. As of 15 October 2021, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the Senate in the 2020 elections (270 To Win). 1) All Cryonics Patients will be revived after 300 years from now (2018). 2020 - iul. 22 October - 3rd Presidential debate. I wanted to wait until all the US election stuff resolves, but seems like this will take a while for the last few questions, so let's proceed for now. The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least five more iterations. Remember this Jonathan: Superforecaster Qualities (I say that to myself) My predictions: 75% sure. Election 2020. 2) The first commercial use of Nuclear Fusion Energy will be available in 2085. The Superforecaster's Novels (Dan Mayland Interview) March 15, 2019. Copy link. Brexit and the election of US President Donald Trump. Emerging victorious was the Good Judgment Project — a team-based approach developed by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania — which outmatched forecasts . "If they'd just hired him sooner superforecaster Andrew Sabisky could have seen this backlash against Andrew Sabisky coming and warned them." Dmitry Grozoubinski, Trade consultant, 16 February 2020 Special advisers are a feature of government. FORECASTING NEWSLETTER. Doomsday election scenarios. Resolution is ambiguous if a major media call has not been made as of one week after the election; in this case one or more alternative questions will be launched. Opinion polls, forecasting models, betting markets, and superforecaster predictions are all telling the same story. 14 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. Mr Sabisky has described himself as a superforecaster. 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